SURJIT BHALLA

Citizen Raj: Indian Elections 1952-2019 by Surjit S .Bhalla; Published by Westland; Pages 222 ; Price Rs 499/-

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Dr.Surjit Bhalla has been appointed as India’s Executive Director on the Board of the IMF-- a post held by ex- RBI Deputy Governor Dr.Subhir Gokarn. Dr.Bhalla holds a Ph.D in economics from Princeton University, a Masters in public and international affairs from Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University and a BSEE degree from Purdue University.He is Chairman of Oxus Research & Investments and former member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council.He worked as Professor in Delhi School of Economics and worked at the Rand Corporation,the Brokings Institution, World Bank,Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. He is the author of several books.

The book under review is an authoritative analysis of the history of Indian elections, describing carefully the economic and political backdrop against which elections have been unfolding since 1952: the Congress partys studied hegemony for almost 70 years, when it was under the thumb of the Dynasts ; the disastrous collapse of the Janata Party in the 1970s; the eminently laudable economic reforms of 1991; the ascent of the BJP in the early 1980s, and most importantly, the way India saw the ascent to olympian heights of an ordinary politician from Gujarat--- a gentleman named Narendra Modi—an Indian version of “ From the Log Cabin to the White House.”.

Surjit Bhalla rightly issues a stern warning to BJP to take corrective action and steer clear of Cow Politics. The Opposition Bhalla declares has to veer away from an outdated social and economic narrative to become worthy of a nation which is fast discarding identity and caste politics to emerge as a modern middle-class economic power. Bhalla is ruthlessly frank and extends rapier-thrusts basing it on rigorous and in-depth research and data.

One can assess the acuracy of Bhallas prognostications . In the three elections in the mid-1990s, the BJ P averaged around 175 seats. During these years, the yield of the BJP vote was around 7.5 i.e., each one per cent vote brought the BJP around 7.5 seats (the same level as in 1989). This increased to 9.1 in 2014. One estimate of the extra seats that the BJP may have obtained in 2014 due to the Modi effect is obtained by assuming that the seat yield of the BJP remained at 7.5.Hence, with thirty-one per cent of the vote, the BJP should have secured 232 seats; hence, by obtaining 282 seats, the Modi seat effect in 2014 was fifty seats.

Even if the 2014 state elections are ignored, the average swing for the BJP in 2015--2018 (weighted by size of the state electorate) was a large 7.5 per cent; while for the Congress it was -0.7 per cent. In 2019, even a two per cent extra vote for the BJP will increase its seat share to 297 (an average historical yield of 7.5); just a one per cent swing will get them to 290. In other words, it is not difficult to imagine a scenario whereby the BJP gets close to the second magic figure of 300.

The book is timely, informative and bold. The book cleverly uses data and arrives at inferences shrewdly. His predictions have been proved to be accurate.The book cautioned readers that the BJP needed corrective action and to move away from cow politics, even as the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress party and the Alliance of Regional parties ned to move away from an outdated social and economic narrative.

Bhalla gives us a pre-view of opinion polls .He predicted a majority for BJP and about 60 for Congress using data science.

An acute analysis of Narendra Modi is provided by Bhalla. Modi became Chief Minister without ever having been an MLA. Second, he became Prime Minister without becoming a Member of Parliament. He also won his first State and National elections by huge margins. He won three consecutive elections in Gujarat2002--2007--2012. Narendra Modi’s stature has been established as one of the world’s successful politicians. His reign has spelled the end of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Congress days are ending as India had gone through a eighteen year phase when Dr.Manmohan Singh helped the Congess to attain some respectability. This was squandered away with the worst macro-management in the history of Indian economy over any given election period.The India National Congress has made a royal mess.

Undoubtedly Bhalla’s book is compulsory reading for all who are keen on India’s political and economic future no matter which party they belong to.

P.P.Ramachandran.

06/10/2019.